Nasiphi Ndevu shares the views that
came out of the recent ISS Futures event
South Africa at a Crossroads: The GNU’s Two-Way Option for Growth and Stability
On the backdrop of a low-growth economic trajectory, worsening poverty levels, and persistent unemployment, the ISS Futures event brought together leading policymakers, economists, and business leaders to reflect on South Africa’s direction. Central to the discussion was how the Government of National Unity (GNU) can either be a turning point or a holding pattern. The focus was clear: How can South Africa escape its current developmental malaise and reignite inclusive growth?
Keynote by Deputy Minister of Finance, Mr Ashor Sarupen was appointed as the second Deputy Minister of Finance from 3 July 2024. He is the first Deputy Chairperson of the Democratic Alliance (DA)
Mr Ashor Sarupen offered a sobering but pragmatic take on South Africa’s challenges. Acknowledging the country’s drift toward a low-growth trap characterised by poor productivity, weak investment, and rising debt, he underscored the urgent need for bold reforms.
He emphasised that stagnation is not destiny, and a different future is still within reach if reforms are urgent, strategic, and persistent. He called for a capable, ethical state, underpinned by transparency, accountability, and policy coherence. The GNU, despite its tenuous footing, presents a unique opportunity to unify differing ideologies around a shared national agenda.
Key reform priorities outlined includes stabilising debt and maintaining a primary budget surplus removing structural impediments to private investment, restoring institutional capacity in public service, investing in public infrastructure and enabling a just energy transition. Importantly, Mr Ashor Sarupen emphasised that none of these goals can be achieved without restoring public trust and enforcing the rule of law.
Dr Jakkie Cilliers: The Politics Will Determine the Path
Dr Cilliers, head of the African Futures Project, steered the conversation to the political realm. In his analysis, South Africa is now firmly in a coalition era. The 2029 elections will likely produce another fragmented outcome, and the December 2027 ANC leadership conference will be pivotal in determining the country’s direction. He contrasted two potential paths a centre-right growth coalition (ANC, DA, IFP, Freedom Front) which could significantly boost GDP and reduce poverty by 2043, a centre-left alliance (ANC, EFF, MK), which may entrench low growth and populist policies. His scenarios forecast that a centre-right alignment could raise GDP close to $1 trillion and substantially reduce poverty, whereas a centre-left path would stall growth, deepen inequality, and potentially undermine governance.
Views from Business and Agriculture
Busisiwe Mavuso from Business Leadership SA made a strong political point: real change starts with voters choosing competent leaders. With municipal elections looming, she urged South Africans to use their democratic power wisely. She also stressed the importance of infrastructure investment to improve the operating environment for business and restore investor confidence.
Wandile Sihlobo, Chief Economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz) and the author of three books, agreed that boosting private investment is critical. While supportive of ongoing reforms in logistics and electricity, he argued that success hinges on durable political stability and professional local governance. He also pointed to the need for a more proactive trade and diplomacy strategy, especially given the tariff challenges from the United States.
The U.S. Tariff Shock: A Wake-Up Call
Recent U.S. tariff announcements targeting South Africa were a major concern for speakers. Mavuso highlighted the potentially devastating impact on trade and jobs, emphasising that South Africa can no longer rely on historical goodwill. Sihlobo stressed that a long-term fix requires bilateral trade agreements, not just dependence on preferential programs like AGOA. Masondo acknowledged that South Africa must revise outdated trade policies and adapt to a world increasingly dominated by bilateralism.
The Rule of Law and Public Trust
Across the board, speakers agreed: growth will remain elusive unless basic governance improves. Masondo and Cilliers emphasised that crime, corruption, and lawlessness undermine investment and service delivery. Cilliers pointed to the collapse of the intelligence and policing structures and called for their complete overhaul, not mere reform. He drew comparisons to the effective turnaround at SARS under strong leadership as a model for other institutions. The audience was reminded that a capable state is not built through speeches but through credible leadership, consistent delivery, and hard decisions.
The GNU: A Turning Point or Temporary Fix?
The debate on the GNU was central. Mr Ashor Sarupen stressed that it must not be viewed as a temporary compromise but rather as a legitimate expression of voters’ will. For the GNU to succeed, it needs a shared national purpose over party interests, stable inter-party relations and strong leadership at the top. However, questions remain about whether this political formation can hold, especially amid ideological divisions and power struggles.
Building the Future Starts Now
The ISS report and the discussions underscored a clear message: South Africa’s future is not predetermined. The path to prosperity is available but it requires courage, reform, and unity of purpose. There is no time to wait until 2039 to return to 2013 levels of prosperity. The choices made in the next few years by voters, government, and business will determine whether South Africa remains in economic stagnation or moves into a new era of growth and opportunity.
Nasipi Ndevu is the Head of Research for Sgwili Media Group.
