Instead of planning for the future, leaders should rather plan from futures, writes Dr Doris Viljoen.
Leaders are expected to plan for the future, whether they are in big or small business, government, or good-deed organisations. And they do. They collate data about every aspect of their operations, they compare budgets with actuals, and they make projections for the next six months to five years. They build impressive quantitative models and dashboards. Some projections include more positive and more negative outcomes. This type of approach is useful, but a shift in perspective could produce richer and more robust strategic planning.
Instead of planning for the future, leaders should rather plan from futures. Notice the plural. It indicates that multiple plausible futures are considered and learned from, and therefore it requires a shift in mindset.
Traditional planning approaches aim toward developing one high-probability preferred future based on current assumptions, historic data, and the predicted development of existing trends. Intuitively, this feels focused, efficient, and rational. However, this approach may prove risky in an increasingly complex world with rapid technological changes, social disruptions, geopolitical shocks, and economic volatility. Small, surprising events can produce significant consequences, and unexpected disruptions can render even the most carefully constructed forecast irrelevant. When organisations plan for only one future, they effectively place all their strategic bets on a narrow pathway. If reality diverges from this imagined pathway, it could be costly to adjust.
Planning from an array of futures rather than one expected future requires courage and curiosity but delivers a more contextually aware and adaptive approach to strategy making.
People that plan from multiple futures accept uncertainty as a permanent condition rather than a temporary obstacle. Instead of trying to predict what will happen, they explore what could happen when different combinations of social, technological, economic, environmental, and political drivers play out. Each scenario becomes a test environment for strategies and decisions.
Thinking about alternative futures is (and should be) a messy process. Strategic planners should embrace the messiness, acknowledge the complexity of multiple factors influencing each other in non-linear ways, and consider potential surprises from factors that are currently highly uncertain. They should craft multiple scenarios of plausible futures, spend mental rehearsal time in each of those scenarios to experience the influence of that scenario on their people, policies, processes, and business models, before doing strategic planning from these futures, drawing on the insights gained through the mental rehearsal within the different scenarios.
Leaders should not discard the high-probability future; it makes for a good reference case. A well-constructed quantitative model based on this future can produce rich insights about the current relationships between driving forces, and how and why past shifts occurred.
Although planning from futures is a messy process, it brings benefits to an organisation. When people have considered multiple plausible futures and its early warning signals in advance, they become more vigilant and set up environmental scanning systems to help them notice emerging shifts and changes earlier. Instead of reacting in crisis mode, they respond from a base of informed perception and agility.
Making strategic plans based on multiple scenarios, usually produce ‘no-regret-moves’, actions that render positive results across all scenarios. It also allows planners to consider contingency plans that can be actioned when certain situations emerge.
Planning from futures involves backcasting, and this brings about an appreciation for when things must be actioned and delivered over the planning horizon. Therefore, these planners display a heightened sense of urgency towards the activities required and its timeous activation to achieve strategic goals.
Innovation is another area strengthened by planning from multiple futures. Single-future plans tend to reinforce incremental improvement because they extend current trajectories. Multiple-futures exploration, however, expands the imagination. It creates space to consider discontinuities, breakthrough technologies, and alternative business or social models. Teams become more willing to experiment because they recognise that the future may reward entirely different capabilities than those valued today. This mindset supports proactive innovation rather than defensive adaptation.
From a risk management perspective, planning from multiple futures is also more prudent. A diversified strategy increases resilience. It acknowledges that uncertainty cannot be eliminated, only navigated. Organisations that adopt this approach tend to recover faster from shocks because they have already rehearsed alternative responses.
Another advantage of planning from futures is that it reduces blind spots and cognitive bias. We naturally favour familiar patterns and preferred outcomes. Single-future forecasts often reflect personal preferences, deep assumptions and institutional optimism. By exploring multiple futures, teams are forced to surface their assumptions and challenge pre-conceived ideas. The process encourages structured debate, brings diverse perspectives into play, and expects deeper analysis. By confronting possibilities such as a market collapse, changing regulations, social and demographic shifts, or disruptive innovation, planners avoid the trap of preparing only for the future they hope will occur.
In an era of accelerating change, the question is no longer whether surprises will occur, but when. Planning from multiple futures equips decision-makers to face that reality with disciplined courage and creativity. It replaces perceived certainty with informed readiness, enabling strategies that are not only ambitious but also robust and agile.
Dr Doris Viljoen is the Head: Futures Studies programmes and Director of the Institute for Futures Studies at Stellenbosch Business School.