What voters say ahead of LGE 2026—Ipsos

POLITICS

ANC polling at 31% among registered voters, DA at 25%, MK at 14%, EFF at 11%, and ActionSA at 6%.

Two months before South Africans head to the polls to elect new local governments, Ipsos research sug-gests that electoral outcomes remain far from settled, with significant numbers of registered voters still available to be persuaded.

The political landscape remains highly com-petitive. Helen Zille has been campaigning for months and has drawn considerable at-tention with her unusual and eye-catching campaign in Johannesburg, while other parties have been slower off the mark. Some parties have now announced their mayoral candidates for the eight major metropolitan municipalities, but the ANC, after indicating that mayoral candid-ates would be announced ahead of its manifesto launch, has thus far only published a list of 42 potential candidates.

Ipsos conducted its regular Khayabus “Pulse of the People” study during this period of pre-election uncertainty and speculation. Between June and July 2026, 3 600 randomly selected South Africans were interviewed in their homes and home languages. The study is designed to provide insight into the views of South Africans from all provinces, settlement types, and backgrounds. Results are weighted and projected to the population of South Africans aged 18 years and older who are eligible to vote.

With election day now only two months away, it is an appropriate time to take stock of the current electoral landscape. However, the figures quoted in this press release should not be interpreted as a prediction of the final election outcome. There is still much campaigning to do, many voters to persuade and many arguments to have before South Africans cast their ballots on 4 November 2026.

Understanding the electorate

When asked, 70% of respondents indicated that they were registered as voters with the IEC1. The analysis in this press release fo-cuses on the views and voting intentions of this group.

While public debate often focuses on party support, voter interest and turnout remain equally important factors in determ-ining election outcomes. Among registered voters, two-thirds expressed either some interest or said that they are very interested in politics and elections.

Interest in politics does not always translate into participation on election day. However, when asked how likely they were to vote in the upcoming Local Government Elections, about three-quarters of registered voters indicated that they were either likely or very likely to cast their ballots.

However, the picture becomes more nuanced when respondents are asked to make an actual party choice.

Registered voters were presented with an electronic ballot paper and asked to indicate their preferred political party themselves.

Several respondents decided not to answer this question and/or indicated that they would not vote in the Local Govern-ment Elections. These potential stay-away voters are important to consider, particularly as their proportions differ markedly across provinces and metropolitan municipalities.

For political parties, these represent voters who may still be persuaded to participate. With two months of campaigning remaining, turnout could prove just as important as party support in determining election outcomes.

The table below shows the proportion of registered voters in each province who selected a political party (or indicated that they do not yet know who to support), com-pared with those who indicated that they would not vote in the Local Government Elections.

The findings suggest that turnout could play a significant role in determining elec-tion outcomes in several provinces. Registered voters in the Western Cape (84%) and Limpopo (83%) appear most likely to participate, while between one-quarter and three in every ten registered voters in KwaZulu-Natal, the Northern Cape, North West and the Free State currently indicate that they do not intend to vote.

As campaigning intensifies over the next two months, some of the fiercest contest-ations are likely to take place in the country’s metropolitan municipalities.

The proportions of registered voters who currently indicate that they will not vote in the Local Government Elections are therefore particularly relevant to prospective councillors and political parties.

These findings may be of particular interest to political parties campaigning in Ekurhuleni, eThekwini, Tshwane, and Buffalo City. In each of these metros, between roughly one-fifth and one-quarter of registered voters currently indicate that they do not intend to vote. Mobilising even a portion of these voters could significantly influence electoral outcomes in closely con-tested municipalities.

Current political party support

As with previous elections, political support varies considerably across provinces, high-lighting the regional strengths and weaknesses of South Africa’s major political parties.

While Local Government Elections do not determine provincial governments, the find-ings provide valuable insight into the relative strength of parties across the country.

The ANC continues to enjoy particularly strong support in Limpopo and the Eastern Cape, while the DA remains dominant in the Western Cape and performs competitively in several other provinces.

With two months of campaigning still to go, competition is likely to intensify across much of the country as parties seek to con-solidate support in their strongholds while making inroads into areas where they currently trail competitors.

The ANC faces an uphill battle in many provinces, while the DA continues to dominate in the Western Cape but will need a strong campaign if it hopes to make significant gains elsewhere.

MK remains largely a KwaZulu-Natal phe-nomenon, while the EFF is making notable inroads in Mpumalanga and the Eastern Cape and continues to perform well in Limpopo. ActionSA’s support remains con-centrated in Gauteng, while the IFP’s strength is largely confined to KwaZulu-Natal. The Patriotic Alliance remains a factor primarily in the Western Cape.

Metro voting intentions reveal sev-eral closely contested races

Voting intentions in South Africa’s major met-ropolitan municipalities reveal a highly competitive electoral landscape, highlighting the very different political dynamics unfold-ing across the country’s largest urban centres.

The ANC and DA remain the leading parties in most metros

Current voting intentions suggest that Johan-nesburg, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay, and Buffalo City could see particularly com-petitive races between the ANC and DA.

Cape Town remains a DA stronghold

The DA records its strongest metro support in Cape Town (46%) and could potentially exceed 50% support as campaigning continues.

MK dominates eThekwini

MK records majority-level support in eThek-wini (55%), significantly outperforming other parties in the metro.

EFF support is concentrated in Buffalo City

Although support for the EFF varies across metros, it reaches 27% in Buffalo City, sub-stantially higher than elsewhere. This places the party in a strong competitive position in the metro.

ActionSA’s strongest support remains in Gauteng

ActionSA records double-digit support in Johannesburg, Tshwane, and Ekurhuleni, suggesting its greatest electoral presence remains concentrated in Gauteng’s metro-politan areas.

“What stands out is that there is no single metropolitan story unfolding across South Africa,” says Mari Harris, Political Analyst at Ipsos in South Africa. “Different parties are competing from very different positions of strength depending on the metro. While some cities appear headed for closely contested ANC-DA races, others show strong support for regional or smaller parties.

“Currently, only MK shows a strong dominant position in eThekwini, suggesting that many metro’s are headed for coalition governments. This makes the coalition dis-cussions after the elections and the choice of coalition partners of vital importance for the functioning of local government in South Africa and the delivery of basic services to citizens.”

POLITICS